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- Day Three
000
acus01 kwns 160100
swody1
Storm Prediction Center ac 160059
Day 1 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018
Valid 160100z - 161200z
..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms over a portion
of the middle Atlantic and northeast states...
...
An isolated storm or two with gusty winds remains possible through
mid evening over a portion of the middle Atlantic into the coastal
northeast.
..middle Atlantic through the coastal northeast...
Evening radiosonde observation data show very little instability (mlcape below 100
j/kg) with northward extent into northeast states. Frontogenetic
forcing will increase this evening over the northeast U.S. Along the
advancing cold front as a surface low deepens over southeast Canada
in response to ascent within exit region of a progressive upper jet.
Have maintained a small marginal risk category for the possibility a
narrow, low-topped convective line capable of a few strong wind
gusts where the best overlap of frontal forcing and weak instability
is expected.
.Dial.. 10/16/2018
$$
Mesoscale Discussion
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acus11 kwns 150430
sels mesoscale discussion
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 150430
txz000-150500-
Mesoscale discussion 1585
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 PM CDT sun Oct 14 2018
Areas affected...northeast Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 415...
Valid 150430z - 150500z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 415
continues.
Summary...although locally strong winds and small hail cannot be
ruled out with the remaining storms advancing across the small valid
portion of ww 415, this watch should be allowed to expire as
scheduled at 05z as the overall convective trends weaken.
Discussion...trends in radar imagery and lightning data with the
convection across northeast Texas indicated a substantial decrease in
intensity and coverage, respectively. This is likely due to the
increasing influence of strengthening surface-based inhibition, and
these trends will continue to limit the severe-weather threat into
the overnight.
.Peters.. 10/15/2018
..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product...
Attention...WFO...shv...
Latitude...Lon 32829530 33219461 32399467 32169496 32129536 32829530
