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- Day Three
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acus01 kwns 230031
swody1
Storm Prediction Center ac 230030
Day 1 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 PM CDT sun Apr 22 2018
Valid 230100z - 231200z
..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from the Florida
Panhandle into southwest Georgia...
..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms from central
Alabama to the Florida Panhandle...
...
Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and a
brief/weak tornado are possible across parts of Alabama, the Florida
Panhandle, and southwest Georgia into this evening.
...
Two areas of thunderstorms persist this evening, one from the Florida
Panhandle into southwest Georgia in a warm advection regime, and another
arcing line of storms moving into central Alabama closer to the upper
low. Low level shear and srh remain supportive of rotating storms in
both areas, despite marginal instability. The 00z bmx sounding shows
a few hundred j/kg MUCAPE, but a very large looping hodograph. Cool
air over northern and eastern Alabama will likely result in weakening as
storms exit central al, but not before a localized wind or brief
tornado threat in the near term.
To the southeast, a relatively moist air mass exists along the Gulf
Coast but precipitation is becoming widespread. Low-level shear
remains supportive of embedded supercells for a few more hours. For
more information see mesoscale discussion 284.
.Jewell.. 04/23/2018
$$
Mesoscale Discussion
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acus11 kwns 230011
sels mesoscale discussion
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 230011
flz000-gaz000-alz000-230115-
Mesoscale discussion 0284
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0711 PM CDT sun Apr 22 2018
Areas affected...portions of the Florida Panhandle...extreme southeast
Alabama...extreme southwest Georgia
Concerning...Tornado Watch 56...
Valid 230011z - 230115z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 56 continues.
Summary...the greatest short-term tornado risk will likely focus
near the maritime/warm front in the Alabama-GA-FL tri-state region.
Discussion...latest subjective surface analysis places a warm front
from Apalachee Bay northwest near Tallahassee and into southeast Alabama.
A very moist airmass with weak buoyancy (590 j/kg MLCAPE per the
evening tlh raob) characterizes this area. Surface dewpoints are in
the upper 60s-70 degrees f range along and south of the boundary and
in the middle 60s east and northeast of the boundary. As stronger
updrafts move northeast within the warm conveyer convective plume
and interact within the warm frontal zone, the backed low-level flow
and augmented hodographs will support a greater threat for low-level
mesocyclones and the possibility for a couple of weak/short-track
supercell tornadoes. The main concern/uncertainty at this time is
the cessation of the tornado risk and the watch expiration time.
Either a local watch extension-in-time or a watch replacement may
need to be considered in the next 60-90 minutes since the watch
expires at 9pm CDT/10pm EDT.
.Smith.. 04/23/2018
..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product...
Attention...WFO...tae...
Latitude...Lon 30368468 30998532 31458504 31418455 30648417 30368468
