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- Day Three
000
acus01 kwns 141628
swody1
Storm Prediction Center ac 141627
Day 1 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 am CDT Tue Aug 14 2018
Valid 141630z - 151200z
..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of
northeast Wyoming...
...
A few severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into evening
over parts of the north-central rockies/High Plains region. Other
strong storms may occur over eastern North Carolina, portions of
Oklahoma and southern Kansas, and southern Arizona.
...
Morning water vapor loop shows a deepening upper trough over western
Mt/WY. This feature will track eastward across Wyoming today, providing
large scale forcing for ascent and scattered thunderstorm
development. Southeasterly low level winds east of the big horns
will maintain ample moisture, with afternoon heating yielding steep
low level lapse rates and MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 j/kg. Given
the favorable vertical shear profiles, steep mid-level lapse rates,
and consensus of 12z guidance that several storms will form, have
upgraded portions of this region to slight risk for large hail.
Activity may persist well into the evening, spreading eastward into
parts of western South Dakota/Nebraska before diminishing.
...
Several vort maxima continue to rotate around an upper low over
western Kansas. Broken cloud cover will help to destabilize a corridor
over much of OK and southeast Kansas today, leading to moderate cape
values and scattered thunderstorm development. Deep layer shear is
marginal. However, strengthening low level flow this
afternoon/evening and ambient vorticity beneath cyclonic flow field
may be sufficient for a few rotating cells capable of damaging wind
gusts, an isolated tornado or two, and perhaps hail.
...
Full sunshine and dewpoints in the 70s are leading to MLCAPE values
of 1500+ j/kg over eastern NC today, beneath moderately strong
westerly flow aloft. Scattered thunderstorms will continue to
develop in this region and spread eastward toward the coast. Steep
low-level lapse rates and sufficient cape will lead to a few
multicell clusters capable of gusty/damaging wind gusts. Refer to
recent mesoscale discussion #1285 for further details.
...
12z guidance is becoming more consistent in the likely development
of clusters of thunderstorms forming in Southeast Arizona later this
afternoon and spreading eastward across southern Arizona overnight.
Ample low level moisture and cape, coupled of steep low level lapse
rates, will promote strong outflow winds in the stronger cells.
.Hart/squitieri.. 08/14/2018
$$
Mesoscale Discussion
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acus11 kwns 141611
sels mesoscale discussion
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 141610
ncz000-141815-
Mesoscale discussion 1285
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 am CDT Tue Aug 14 2018
Areas affected...eastern North Carolina
Concerning...severe potential...watch unlikely
Valid 141610z - 141815z
Probability of watch issuance...20 percent
Summary...storms are expected to increase in coverage over the next
few hours with isolated severe hail or wind possible.
Discussion...visible satellite shows an expanding cumulus field across
central and southeast NC, with the northern edge coincident with
more substantial moisture and acting as an effective warm front.
Continued heating will result in moderate instability, which will
favor strong updrafts. As of 16z, an isolated cell was already
ongoing across central NC, and this storms should persist as it
travels eastward along the lifting boundary. Other cells may
eventually develop on its southwest flank, where towering cumulus were developing
toward the SC border. West/southwest 850 mb flow will result in weak
warm advection into northeast NC as well, supporting any cells that
move leftward into that area.
Shear profiles are only marginally supportive of long-lived storm
potential as midlevel flow is around 35 kt with weak low-level
winds. However, increasing instability going into the peak heating
hours and ample precipitable water should allow storms to be
maintained for a while, propagating eastward with strong outflow and
marginal hail.
.Jewell/Hart.. 08/14/2018
..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product...
Attention...WFO...akq...mhx...rah...ilm...
Latitude...Lon 35707897 35887861 36257685 36187639 35917605 35507586
34937603 34597652 34517712 34527767 34667883 34737925
35007937 35327935 35707897
