Wxchaser97's Tropical Weather Blog
Barbara weakening, 91E slowly sorganizing
Posted by: wxchaser97, 12:20 PM GMT на 30 Мај, 2013 +4
Barbara
Tropical depression (TD) Barbara continues to be on the weakening phase. The low level circulation has most likely continued to decay, can't get a recent ASCAT/OSCAT pass, and the spin has slowed. There doesn't look to have been much in the way of TS winds recorded in the last few hours as well. Convection had been waning more until a couple hours ago when there was a burst of convection. This convective burst is already fading somewhat. Also the circulation looks to be on the southern part of this burst, not in the middle. However, it has almost made it into the BOC so there is a chance that it re-intensifies some. SST's are warm and shear is low in the far southern BOC, but the air isn't very moist. Even if it does reform, it won't have long to live. If it goes much farther north it would get destroyed by strong wind shear. However it is likely it meanders in the BOC and eventually makes landfall on the Mexican mainland. If Barbara somehow strengthened and used its resources to the fullest, I can only see it becoming a minimal tropical storm. It shouldn't pose much of a threat to Mexico wind wise. Rainfall will still be a problem regardless of development. Heavy rain and flooding is almost always a problem with any system that hits Mexico and surrounding areas in the Caribbean. The latest storm info, satellite, and microwave images can be found below. There won't be a big analysis like the last blog as Barbara is just a little depression.


2:00 AM PDT Thu May 30
Location: 17.8°N 93.9°W
Moving: N at 8 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph


Figure 1: Satellite image of Barbara.


Figure 2: Microwave image of Barbara.

91E
Invest 91E has been around for a wile now. I have been more focused on Barbara due to its threat to Mexico. Now that Barbara has calmed down some I can look into 91E some more. It looks like there is a decent circulation, but convection keeps on getting sheared away before it can get very organized over the center. Below is the current ATCF info, satellite image, and ASCAT pass.

EP, 91, 2013053006, , BEST, 0, 135N, 1115W, 30, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,


Figure 3: Satellite image of 91E showing not much convection.


Figure 4: Most recent ASCAT image of 91E showing a defined circulation.

What we have here is a pretty well defined surface circulation according to ASCAT. Winds are increasing and there are wind barbs in nearly every direction around the center. There is also spin on the visible and infrared satellites. Microwave images show a good mid level and decent low level circulation too. Pressures are also dropping per ATCF indicating a strengthening system. T #'s are at 1.5 which is in the TD range. However, it still has a long way to go to being a tropical cyclone.

Of course, you need organized convection over a well defined closed circulation to be classified. We are near the closed circulation, but organized convection is hard to come by. This is due to some dry air and pretty strong easterly wind shear. There was a brief period where convection got over the low level center, but it was quickly sheared away. Shear is slowly decreasing, but I think it will still stay in the unfavorable to only slightly favorable at best for a while. SST's are modest, but they could be better. They won't become too much of a factor until later. Models aren't indicating much development of 91E. I agree with them that 91E will likely not develop. There is a small chance, but its window of opportunity until it hits more unfavorable conditions isn't too long from now. I give 91E a 30% chance of tropical development in the the next 48hrs. My tracking map for Barbara and 91E can be found below.


Figure 5: My forecast map for Barbara and 91E.

Have a great Thursday everyone and I will probably have another update this evening.
Categories:Tropical Hurricane Hurricane Barbara Epac Atlantic
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Barbara becomes a hurricane, makes landfall
Posted by: wxchaser97, 02:39 AM GMT на 30 Мај, 2013 +7
What was once a strengthening 65mph TS became a minimum hurricane. Barbara likely continued to strengthen right up until landfall. After making landfall, the storm has began to weaken to due obvious land interaction and energy loss. There is still some modest convection directly over the center and the overall structure is still fairly decent. Further weakening is expected as Barbara continues its trek over Mexico. The current storm info can be found below. Also a s...
Categories:Tropical Hurricane Hurricane Barbara Epac
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TS Barbara forms, headed for Mexico
Posted by: wxchaser97, 12:06 PM GMT на 29 Мај, 2013 +1
Tropical Storm Barbara
Tropical Storm (TS) Barbara formed yesterday from TD2E, which was formerly 92E. This system had been organizing itself over the past few days. What was once a disturbance in the ITCZ/monsoon trough, Barbara was able to separate herself and slowly build her own convection. The disturbance was invested in and designated 92E as it continued to organized. After some more strengthening, 92E looked poised to become the 2nd Tropical depression (...
Categories:Tropical Epac Hurricane Tropical Storm Barbara
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First Atlantic storm possible in the next two weeks
Posted by: wxchaser97, 07:15 PM GMT на 25 Мај, 2013 +7
Analysis
We are almost to June 1st, the start of the Atlantic hurricane season. While there is nothing of interest in the Atlantic right now, that could change in the coming weeks. It has been known for a couple weeks that development in the northwest (NW) Caribbean would be possible during the last few days of May through the first week of June. A MJO pulse is expected to swing through the Caribbean at that time. This would increase moister and lift which woul...
Categories:Tropical Hurricane Atlantic
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Moore, OK Tornado Recap and Berkley, MI Tornado Saftey
Posted by: wxchaser97, 03:57 AM GMT на 25 Мај, 2013 +11
On Monday May 20th, 2013, Moore, Oklahoma got hit, once again, by a violent tornado. This tornado has been rated an EF-5 on the Enhanced Fujita(EF) scale. Winds were estimated to be up to 210mph at the peak. Lots of houses and business were destroyed, including two schools with more building damaged. Damage is estimated to be around $2 billion, making this the 3rd costliest tornado on record. Twenty four people, including ten children, where killed by this tornado, ...
Categories:Tornado Moore, OK Berkley, MI
Updated: 03:33 PM GMT на 25 Мај, 2013   Permalink | A A A
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About wxchaser97
I'm in high school and love meteorology and extreme weather. I've been fascinated by weather since I was 5, and I plan on becoming a meteorologist.

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