Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

96L weakens; political storm at NHC
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 01:13 PM GMT на 04 Јули, 2007 +2
A tropical wave in the mid-Atlantic, near 10N 43W, has lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity, but could still make a comeback and become a tropical depression by Friday. This system has been labeled "96L" by the NHC. The wave has a small closed circulation, as seen on both visible satellite loops and last night's 4:57pm EDT QuikSCAT pass. Winds from QuikSCAT were as high as 25 mph. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed the storm. Wind shear is about 10 knots, and is forecast to fluctuate between 5 and 15 knots in the region over the next two days. By Friday, as the system approaches the Lesser Antilles Islands, the GFS model is predicting that wind shear will rise to 20-30 knots, which should tear the system apart. Dry air to the north is limiting the thunderstorm activity of 96L. The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) lies just 50 miles north of the storm's center of circulation, as seen in water vapor satellite loops. None of the reliable computer models develop the system into a tropical depression. Climatologically, formation of a tropical depression in this region of the Atlantic this time of year is quite rare, and I don't think 96L will develop.

In the Pacific, we broke a long spell of over a month without a tropical cyclone, with the formation of Tropical Storm 03W. The cyclone is expected to hit southern China as a weak tropical storm Friday.


Figure 1. Computer model forecast tracks for 96L.

Storm at NHC
Those of you who follow Margie Kieper's View From the Surface blog know that a major political battle is occurring at NHC. Last night, the Miami Herald broke the story that several senior Hurricane Specialists at NHC are now openly calling for NHC chief Bill Proenza's ouster. Margie and I have been quietly gathering information on this brewing story over the past few months, but have not posted anything due to the sensitive nature of the matter. Now that the story has been broken, we can tell you what we know. I will lay out the full details in my next blog, which I plan to post by 1pm EDT today.

Jeff Masters
Categories: Politics
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251. bluehaze27 05:10 PM GMT на 04 Јули, 2007    
Blame the war in Iraq for the problems at the hurricane center. I work as an Wx observer at Miami International. There has been word coming down for the last year or so that the government wants to make the tower people take observations and phase out the observer program. The talk is that this phase out would first affect c and b stations first. There is no word yet on A stations like Miami. Ft Lauderdale is a level b airport for the wx station there. Couple this talk with the aging quick scat, the fact that they are scaling down flights into hurricanes, and the fact that Noaa won't allow our satellites to study global warming anymore, should tell you all you need to know about where we stand. Our government is out of money and we are low hanging fruit. Our stations contract is awarded again in August with a take over date of Oct 1. Whether or no we will still have a job or whether or not the government will actually phase us out remains to be seen, but I can tell you that everyone in the observing field is very worried.
Member Since: Март 26, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 794
252. WeatherfanPR 05:11 PM GMT на 04 Јули, 2007    
If someone says that the system was decoupled, does that means that it was a TD, TS or H?
Member Since: Август 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1506
253. Tazmanian 05:13 PM GMT на 04 Јули, 2007    
: Drakoen same her
Member Since: Мај 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111338
254. CJ5 05:15 PM GMT на 04 Јули, 2007    
Proenza came in and worked to make things better for the public. He did what many of us nonpoliticians always say we would do; cut out the politics and get something done as a public servant. By pointing out that NOAA is spending money on the proverbial $500 toilet seat and not paying attention to the true needs of the service he has painted himself in the corner. His staff isn't behind him for obvious reasons; go with your boss or the 400lb elephant against him.
Member Since: Јули 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1709
255. WeatherfanPR 05:19 PM GMT на 04 Јули, 2007    
Look at this wind shear forecast for the next 72hrs.Link
Member Since: Август 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1506
256. barbadosjulie 05:25 PM GMT на 04 Јули, 2007    
is this good or bad for our blob?
Member Since: Август 9, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 376

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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