96L weakens; political storm at NHC
A tropical wave in the mid-Atlantic, near 10N 43W, has lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity, but could still make a comeback and become a tropical depression by Friday. This system has been labeled "96L" by the NHC. The wave has a small closed circulation, as seen on both visible satellite loops and last night's 4:57pm EDT QuikSCAT pass. Winds from QuikSCAT were as high as 25 mph. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed the storm. Wind shear is about 10 knots, and is forecast to fluctuate between 5 and 15 knots in the region over the next two days. By Friday, as the system approaches the Lesser Antilles Islands, the GFS model is predicting that wind shear will rise to 20-30 knots, which should tear the system apart. Dry air to the north is limiting the thunderstorm activity of 96L. The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) lies just 50 miles north of the storm's center of circulation, as seen in water vapor satellite loops. None of the reliable computer models develop the system into a tropical depression. Climatologically, formation of a tropical depression in this region of the Atlantic this time of year is quite rare, and I don't think 96L will develop.
In the Pacific, we broke a long spell of over a month without a tropical cyclone, with the formation of Tropical Storm 03W. The cyclone is expected to hit southern China as a weak tropical storm Friday.
Figure 1. Computer model forecast tracks for 96L.
Storm at NHC
Those of you who follow Margie Kieper's View From the Surface blog know that a major political battle is occurring at NHC. Last night, the Miami Herald broke the story that several senior Hurricane Specialists at NHC are now openly calling for NHC chief Bill Proenza's ouster. Margie and I have been quietly gathering information on this brewing story over the past few months, but have not posted anything due to the sensitive nature of the matter. Now that the story has been broken, we can tell you what we know. I will lay out the full details in my next blog, which I plan to post by 1pm EDT today.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED JUL 4 2007
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN IS
LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM STILL
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
totally agree Adrian
RIP 96L
for now, could make a comeback later on, if that circulation can stay intact
i agree.
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED JUL 4 2007
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN IS
LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM STILL
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Just a warm up before the real season starts.
Enjoy you 4th today.
Thats a tropical wave.
Yes!!
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 18N53W 4N53W MOVING W 15 KT. NO AREAS OF
DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANY THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.
Link
Hey Boys and Girls...What's going on in the Gulf?
You can very CLEARLY see the COC on that picture
Hey Boys and Girls...What's going on in the Gulf?
mositure from the Gulf caused by a 1010mb low over land near Corpus Christi.
JP!!!!!!
so, maybe it isnt dead afterall?!?!?!?!?!?!?!
its not dead untill its declared dead by the NHC.
its possible eye
circulation is impressive, it could easily hold form until it comes upon better conditions, I just feel it wont get those conditions unless it gets to the western caribbean
yea JP thats what i feel. Maybe somewhere liek the Bahamas or the Gulf. where there is more moisture in the upper levels for it to feed of.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1053 AM EDT WED JUL 4 2007
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE GATHERING SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS VOLUSIA COUNTY AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
STEERING FLOW AROUND A MID LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE INLAND NORTH OF ORLANDO AND TOWARD THE EAST COAST ACROSS OKEECHOBEE AND MARTIN COUNTIES. SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
SLOW STORM MOTION WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER TWO INCHES. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE PEAK TIME FOR LIGHTNING STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY AND MOVE INDOORS IF THUNDER IS HEARD.
...FLOOD IMPACT...
WEAK STEERING LEVEL WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. STORM MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE 10 MPH OR LESS...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE STRONGER STORMS TO DROP LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THIS COULD CAUSE LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS TO FLOOD. AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO LOCAL FLOODING. DRIVERS ARE URGED NOT TO DRIVE ACROSS FLOODED ROADS.
...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
THE COMBINATION OF AN INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW AND A PERSISTENT EASTERLY SWELL WILL GENERATE A MODERATE THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY. THE THREAT WILL BE GREATEST DURING THE OUTGOING TIDE... WHICH WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 11 AM THIS MORNING AND 530 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
...MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS. IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY WINDS...
CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HIGH SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED AS STORMS PASS.
...WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
DEEP MOISTURE AND LIGHT STEERING WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY LOW THREAT OF WATERSPOUTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY.
...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
STEADY EASTERLY WINDS NORTH OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH HAVE GENERATED LOCALLY HIGH SEAS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WHILE THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...SOME EASTERLY SWELLS WILL WORK THEIR TOWARD THE VOLUSIA COUNTY BEACHES. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED NORTH OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH BEYOND 20 NAUTICAL MILES FROM SHORE FOR SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD ALSO EXERCISE
CAUTION FROM NEW SMYRNA BEACH TO COCOA BEACH...ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE WHERE SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE WEEKEND AND WILL RESULT IN A HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED. RAINFALL SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OR OBSERVED FLOODING.
$$
VOLKMER
with this:
Model guidance suggest it will only get into the eastern most portions of the Caribbean. The BAM models that do well with weaker systems show this.
I just hope the NHC can work together with Mr.Proenza this is no time for fighting, you are a team not enemies.
There's a reason why tropical systems are rare this far out at this time of the year.
Hope eveyone has a great and safe 4th of july.Adrian
To be honest Proenza is on his last string with the inner core of NHC now againest him.I dont think he will last there through the end of the season.Adrian
It's gonna be tough for 96 to hold on. Dry air now rolling in from the south now, the only side its been able to keep consistent convection. But, the dry air to its north seems to be lifting somewhat northwards. If it has a chance at all, it's gonna have to be between 45w and 50w. Still possible, but lower probability.
Hey, at least it is something to watch.
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