March 2012: warmest in U.S. history
Not only was March 2012 the warmest March in the U.S. since record keeping began in 1895, it was also the second most extreme month for warmth in U.S. history, said NOAA yesterday, in their monthly "State of the Climate" report. The average temperature of 51.1°F was 8.6 degrees above the 20th century average for March, and 0.5°F warmer than the previous warmest March in 1910. Of the more than 1,400 months that have passed since the U.S. weather records began in 1895, only one month--January 2006--had a larger departure from its average temperature than March 2012. A remarkable 25 states east of the Rockies had their warmest March on record, and an additional 15 states had a top-ten warmest March. Only four states were cooler than average, with Alaska being the coldest (tenth coldest March on record.)
Figure 1. Temperature rankings for March 2012 in the Contiguous U.S. Twenty five states set records for warmest March in the 118-year records (red colors.) Image credit: NOAA.
March 2012: most daily records broken of any month since July 1936
A wunderground analysis of weather records from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center temperature record database reveals that more daily high temperature records were broken in March in 2012 than for any month except July 1936, going back at least 100 years. Fully 11.3% of all daily high temperature records for the month of March in the U.S. are now held by the year 2012, for the 550 stations in NOAA's National Climatic Data Center database that have weather records extending back at least 100 years. The only month in U.S. history holding a higher percentage of daily temperatures records is July 1936. That month holds 14.4% of all the U.S. high temperature records for the month of July. That month occurred in the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936, the hottest summer in U.S. history.
Summer in March 2012: records not merely smashed, but obliterated
Among the 15,000 daily records for warmth set in March 2012 were 21 truly astonishing ones: cases where the low temperature for the day beat the previous high temperature for the day. It is quite rare for a weather station with a 50+ year period of record to break a daily temperature record by more than 10°F. During "Summer in March, 2012", beating daily records by 10° - 20°F was commonplace, and NOAA lists 44 cases where a daily record was broken by more than 22°F. Extraordinarily, four stations broke a record for the date by 30°F or more. Canada holds the most surreal record of this nature during the "Summer in March, 2012" heat wave: Western Head, Nova Scotia hit 29.2°C (85°F) on March 22, breaking their previous record for the date (10.6°C in 1969) by 18.6°C (33.5°F.) Canada also had several stations break their all-time warmest April temperature records in March.
Last 3 months and 12 months were the warmest on record
The previous 12-month period (April 2011 -March 2012), which includes the second hottest summer (June-August) and fourth warmest winter (December-February), was the warmest such period for the contiguous United States. The year-to-date period (January - March) was also the warmest on record. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index, an index that tracks the highest 10 percent and lowest 10 percent of extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 39 percent, nearly twice the long-term average and the highest value on record for the January - March period. The predominant factor was the large area experiencing extremes in warm daily maximum and minimum temperatures.
Analyzing the "Summer in March, 2012" heat wave
Dr. Martin Hoerling of NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder has posted a thorough analysis of the heat wave, which he calls, "Meteorological March Madness 2012". He explains that the event was probably a natural phenomenon, one that was predicted more than a month in advance by NOAA's long-range CFS model. A similar, though not as intense heat wave occurred in March 1910. However, he notes that the approximate 0.5 - 1°C warming in the Ohio Valley/Midwest U.S. in recent decades--due to human-caused emission of heat trapping gases like carbon dioxide--has significantly increased the odds of major heat waves occurring. He speculates that the odds of a 1-in-40 year heat wave in the Midwest may have increased by about 50% due to human-caused global warming, but that we really don't know how much global warming may have increased the odds of the March 2012 heat wave, saying "This issue of estimating reliable statistics of extreme, rare events continues to be a matter of active research." He estimates that human-caused global warming likely increased the intensity of the March 12 - 23, 2012 heat wave by about 5 - 10%, and concludes by saying, "The probability of heatwaves is growing as [human-caused] warming continues to progress. But there is always the randomness."
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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There is a large plume of smoke from NW to SE that is visible on satellite, and if you live around N Florida all you have to do is look up and see it. Everything has a red tint to it outside, and my car had ashes on it this morning and i live at the beach.
The smoke is actually blowing away from the Suwannee area that has the worst drought catagory.(SW of the fire)It is trailing East and South East. see#653
Link
You guys need quite a bit of rain
In the U.S., CMAS has kicked into gear. Not an app, and alerts extend beyond weather. Right now will not reach all cell phones as not all cell providers are participating and not all phones are CMAS capable yet. Can probably check wireless provider's website to see if they participate and whether or not your phone is CMAS-capable.
CMAS is a partnership between FEMA, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), and wireless carriers, to enhance public safety.
WEAs (Wireless Emergency Alerts) use a unique ring tone and vibration to signal that an alert has arrived. The unique vibration, which distinguishes the alert from a regular text message, is particularly helpful to people with hearing or vision-related disabilities. Alerts will automatically pop up on the mobile device screen and will be limited to 90 characters.
WEAs will not preempt calls in progress.
CMAS/WEA will not track an individual's locations or personal data, as it uses SMS-CB, a broadcast (one-way) technology. This assures that authorities cannot collect any subscriber-related data, including details on who is in the targeted area, who has successfully received the emergency alert, or who may have opted out.
Customers of participating wireless carriers with CMAS/WEA-capable phones will not need to sign up to receive the alerts and should automatically receive WEAs in the event of an emergency, if they are located in, or travel to the affected geographic area.
Wireless customers are not charged for the delivery of Wireless Emergency Alerts.
CMAS/WEA alerts are activated by authorized alerting authorities (generally, a local or State agency or the National Weather Service). The alerts are targeted to specific geographic areas, generally a county. If a CMAS/WEA-capable mobile device is physically located in that area, it will automatically receive and display the message. Every WEA has an expiration date/time and will be resent within the affected area until it expires; however, each individual wireless device will display the alert only once. If a wireless customer travels into the affected area after the WEA was originally sent, and the alert has not expired, they will still receive the alert.
Due to the 90 character limit, alerts will contain only basic information. In most cases the alert will only indicate the type of event (e.g. tornado), the time until the alert expires, and recommended action. To get more specific information, the best response is to check other sources of information, including radio or television, to see if there is a corresponding Emergency Alert System (EAS) message with additional details and/or local news coverage of the event.
Or, in case of severe weather, just plain look at the sky.
:)
Whats up tropics? Wow! That image tells it all
Member Since: January 6, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 4
And I thought the oldest on this blog were from 2005!
If your current trend continues, we can expect another comment from you in 2.5 years. ;)
Is it just me, or does it look like the ocean heat content has done a lot of catching up with 2011 in the last few weeks?
Tomorrow:
I have seen the Euro showing a low pressure in the Central Atlantic,like this run on Monday the 9th at 12 UTC.
.
With the GFS the greatest threat appears to be Western to Central OK,KS, and NE.
With the ECMWF, the storm gets cranked up over C OK, and the threat extends east of there.
I hope the ECMWF wins.
Thank you for the link. Good read.
You are right, we had a decent amount of warming over the past two weeks or so
Freeze warning remains in effect from 3 am to 8 am EDT
Thursday...
* location... southeast North Carolina and northeast South
Carolina including the immediate coast.
* Temperatures... in the lower 30s.
* Timing... freezing temperatures and possibly frost will develop
between 3 am to 8 am Thursday.
* Impacts... outside vegetation... plants and crops sensitive to
freezing temperatures... could potentially become severely
damaged or killed. The only bright spot if there is any... will
be the surface winds possibly staying active enough to prevent
a widespread and long lasting freeze.
Precautionary/preparedness actions...
A freeze warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or
highly likely. These conditions can kill sensitive vegetation
unless protective actions are taken
Wednesday April 11
CO central - 2 to 3
CO southeast - 3
NM east - 2
OK panhandle - 3
TX north panhandle - 3
TX rest of west - 2 to 3
Other areas - 1 or less
Thursday April 12
KS west - 6
NE southwest - 5
NE northwest - 3 to 4
OK west - 6
TX east panhandle - 5
TX west (Wichita Falls - Ft. Stockton) - 3
Other areas - less than 2
Friday April 13
KS south-central - 4
OK west, central - 4
TX northwest - 3 to 4
IA southwest - 3
KS east - 3
MO west - 3
NE southeast - 3
Other areas - less than 2
... Freeze warning in effect from 3 am to 8 am CDT Thursday...
The National Weather Service in Nashville has issued a freeze
warning... which is in effect from 3 am to 8 am CDT Thursday. The
earlier freeze watch is no longer in effect.
* Temperature... low temperatures are expected to fall into the
lower 30s across low lying locations west of the Cumberland
Plateau late tonight.
* Impacts... record setting warmth in March has produced an early
growing season. Any frost that forms could damage or kill
sensitive outdoor plants.
Precautionary/preparedness actions...
A freeze warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or
highly likely. These conditions will kill crops and other
sensitive vegetation.
My own heavily shaded digital thermometer agrees closely, at 92.8f. Was 93.1f a few seconds ago.
This appears to be 5 degrees above the previous official record for the date.
The official temperature is nowhere near that high though.
I wonder what gives?
My thermometer had been agreeing rather closely with official temperatures in the past 3 or 4 months.
Could it be 10f hotter in this field than at the official station?
pardon me for asking a newbie question, but i thought the temperature of the clouds indicated the intensity of the storm...with colder being stronger.
wouldn't a cloud with smoke be hotter than the atmosphere?
I think part of that is also because most of the tropical systems last year took that path, with not much activity in the gulf and southern Caribbean to churn up the cooler waters...
Geesh! Talk about a high fire risk with sleet falling.
... Enhanced threat for the spread of wildfires this afternoon and
early this evening...
Fuel moisture remains very low across much of Maryland... northern
and central Virginia... and the eastern Panhandle of West Virginia.
Northwest winds will average between 15 and 20 mph with gusts 25
to 30 mph through early this evening. The minimum relative
humidity will range from 35 to 45 percent across much of the area.
The combination of gusty winds... very low fuel moisture and low
relative humidity will cause an enhanced threat for the spread of
wildfires through early this evening.
Open burning of any type is considered very hazardous this time of
year. Accidental escaped debris Burns are the number one cause of
wildfires.
The ocean floor has opened up and the worlds entire ocean system is draining into it.....
Yes, which is why the fire shows up as a black blotch on infrared.
Meteorological infrared products color code temperature the reverse of ordinary thermal imaging cameras.
If you want to see the unenhanced infrared it will show up well on the RGB produced due to the order of the overlays, and you will see a black blotch from the heat of the fires.
Very smokey here in Orlando.
No it wouldn't, the pyrocumulus thermodynamics work the same way as any other thunderstorm. Warm moist air rises into the cooler air and condenses forming the clouds. Generally the colder the cloud tops, the higher into the atmosphere the clouds have risen (also how they determine cloud height). Hope this helps...
From SPC:
...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS TO DEVELOP
DURING AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF DRYLINE...IN WIND PROFILES SUITABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS. MOIST-SECTOR MIXING AND LCL HEIGHTS SHOULD BE
GREATER OVER TX PORTION OF OUTLOOK THAN FARTHER N...RENDERING
GREATER TORNADO PROBABILITIES OVER KS/OK SEGMENT OF OUTLOOK AREA.
LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL IS LIKELY FROM ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS.
MOIST-SECTOR DEW POINTS..AIDED BY UPSTREAM
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION...SHOULD REACH UPPER 50S OVER PORTIONS
W-CENTRAL/NWRN KS...AND LOW 60S OVER WRN OK INTO SWRN KS...BENEATH
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. ONE COMPLICATING FACTOR FOR MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY MAY BE PRESENCE OF SEVERAL DAYS OF ANTECEDENT
MIXING/DRYING ACROSS CENTRAL/W-CENTRAL TX...ALTHOUGH UPSTREAM
LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS LOWER TX COAST APPEARS DEEPER AND
MORE MOIST THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS
KS/OK ALSO WILL AFFECT ERN EXTENT OF FAVORABLE BOUNDARY-LAYER
THETAE. NET RESULT SHOULD BE NARROW...BUT STILL
SUPPORTIVE...CORRIDOR OF AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF DRYLINE
FROM W-CENTRAL/NWRN KS SWD ACROSS WRN OK...WITH VERY NARROW SLIVER
OF WARM SECTOR POSSIBLE NWWD ACROSS PORTIONS SWRN NEB/EXTREME NERN
CO. DURATION/STRENGTH OF DIURNAL HEATING IS UNCERTAIN...GIVEN THE
ABOVE FACTORS AND POTENTIAL FOR PLUME OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER AREA...BUT
RIBBON OF 1000-2000 J/KG LATE-AFTERNOON MLCAPE MAY DEVELOP FROM
W-CENTRAL/SWRN KS SWD.
STRENGTHENING EVENING LLJ WILL BOOST HODOGRAPH SIZE...AND PERHAPS
TORNADO POTENTIAL...FOR ANY SUSTAINED/SFC-BASED SUPERCELLS LASTING
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ASIDE FROM THAT...COVERAGE OF SVR TSTMS
GENERALLY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER DARK AS MLCINH STEADILY INCREASES.
I have 83 in mandeville? I know Hammond is usually 3 or 4 degrees hotter but not that much
Before sunrise, you can see a black blotch on unenhanced infrared.
when it overlays visible, it over-powers the blotch, and you can see visible smoke.
RGB unenhanced, zoom in on Florida
The smoke hardly shows up on infrared at all, because it's warmer than the graphical products normally are configured to display.
On color enhanced infrared, the smoke shows up as a faint grey-white blotch because it is off the color scale to the left, which indicates it is much warmer than normal atmosphere...
color enhanced, zoom in on Florida
I think he made the right call... He may end up needing to go higher than that as tomorrow has the potential to be a pretty decent event
yeah, thats what I'm thinking too.
Always is. From where does this prediction come?
Nobody ever said "no snow, no cold". What was said is that without snow on the ground in the midwest, a deep freeze in the SE is unlikely. Lo and behold - no snow is on the ground in the midwest, and the SE isn't getting a deep freeze. (I'm defining "deep freeze" as the same as a "hard freeze"... 6-8 continuous hours of temps under 28F.)
From the fact that California sits on one of the most seismically active regions in the world which has produced significant earthquakes in the past but has not produced one in decades meaning we are well overdue
The official thermometer is saying 81f.
However, on radar, it's now obvious to me that the official weather site was heavily shaded by the pop-up thunderstorm to our north this entire time.
Perhaps the PWS is between them and me.
I can hear the thunderstorm coming, but it's not yet raining here.
Maybe it really was that much hotter here...
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