Erika dumping heavy rain on the Lesser Antilles
Tropical Storm Erika is hanging together despite strong wind shear, and is bringing high winds and much-needed heavy rain to the Lesser Antilles Islands. Winds on the south shore of Dominica Island were sustained at 37 mph this morning, and 8.03" of rain have been measured at the airport over the past two days. Winds and rain at nearby islands have been less, according to our wundermap for the region. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm now, and have generally encountered top winds of 40 - 45 mph at the surface. They did find one spot of 50 - 65 mph winds, but that was likely due to outflow from a strong thunderstorm, and is not representative of Erika's wind field.
Figure 1. Radar image of Tropical Storm Erika at 9:15am EDT 9/3/09. Image credit: Meteo France.
Erika has improved in organization a bit since last night, but remains weak and disorganized, thanks to about 20 knots of shear at the 200 mb level, as seen on last night's Guadeloupe upper air sounding. Radar animations out of Martinique show plenty of heavy rain moving through the Lesser Antilles, but little organization of the echoes. Satellite imagery shows no low-level spiral bands and little upper-level outflow. Long range radar out of Puerto Rico is beginning to show rain echoes from Erika approaching the island.
The forecast for Erika
The computer models have come into better agreement about the track of Erika, taking the storm west-northwest over Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. This track will take Erika into a band of significantly higher wind shear of 25 - 35 knots, Friday through Saturday. Considering that Erika is barely maintaining itself as a tropical storm with 20 knots of shear, the combined effects of the higher shear and the encounter with the high mountains of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico should be enough to cause Erika to dissipate by Sunday. Erika's remains will still be capable of dumping very heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches over the Dominican Republic and 1 - 3 inches over Haiti and the Southeast Bahamas, due to the slow motion of the storm. By Monday, when the remains of Erika should be over the Bahamas, the storm will have penetrated through the band of high wind shear over the Greater Antilles, and shear may fall low enough for redevelopment of the storm. This is a scenario offered by the NOGAPS model, which then takes Erika northward towards North Carolina. The other models predict quite a bit more shear in the region than the NOGAPS, and any redevelopment of Erika early next week remains an iffy proposition. The GFDL and HWRF models continue to insist that Erika will brush off the high shear this weekend, avoid Hispaniola, and intensify into a Category 2 hurricane five days from now. These models have not been giving enough emphasis to how the current shear is affecting Erika, and are being discounted at this time.
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Elsewhere in the Atlantic
A large, strong tropical wave with plenty of spin emerged from the coast of Africa this morning. The wave is not yet generating much in the way of heavy thunderstorms, but has the potential to gradually develop into a tropical depression by early next week. NHC is giving this wave a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. The GFS model has been consistently developing this wave in its runs over the past few days.
I'll have an update this afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
BP (British Petroleum) has discovered the largest deposit of oil in the GOM since the 80's, over 1/2 billion barrels. This could spell huge implications for gas prices, making them fall in the long term and possibly short term due to speculation.
I know this is a little off topic but since hurricanes and tropical storms typically close these rigs down, it directly effects the petro industry.
Sorry ment to add this quote on my last post. She stated her opinion, what's wrong with that? I think you need to calm down, and quit being so obnoxious yourself!!!
My deeper analysis of this:
Tropical Storm Jimena/Tropical Storm Erika
I think all the islands suffer from the same problem...flooding...but i wont lie to you i think Trinidad could do with some of that rain u guys are getting this heat is killing :)
caught between the B-AZ high and continental
high pressure over the central us...still a good deflector in place for GOMEX.
Let this be a reminder to everyone that hurricanes don't just impact CONUS. There are lots of other damaging hurricanes out there.
Thankfully, George and his family is ok.
Its at the 200mb level.
WTNT41 KNHC 031437
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
1100 AM AST THU SEP 03 2009
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT
ERIKA HAS MOVED VERY SLOWLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THAT THE
CENTER IS SOMEWHAT ELONGATED. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED THAT THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS COME UP A LITTLE...TO 1010 MB. THERE WERE A
FEW UN-FLAGGED SFMR READINGS OF WINDS NEAR TROPICAL-STORM FORCE IN
THE CONVECTION WELL EAST OF THE CENTER...SO THE INTENSITY IS HELD
AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE 1200 UTC RADIOSONDE DATA STILL SHOW
WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE 250 MB LEVEL WEST OF
ERIKA...AND THE SAN JUAN RAOB SHOWS A RELATIVELY DRY MID- AND
UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE. ALL OF THIS
EVIDENCE...PLUS THE POTENTIAL FOR LAND INTERACTION...SUGGESTS THAT
ERIKA SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD. DESPITE THIS...
ALMOST ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE KEEPS ERIKA AS AT LEAST A
TROPICAL STORM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...HOLDING ERIKA AS A TROPICAL
STORM THROUGH 12 HOURS AND SLOWLY WEAKENING THE CYCLONE TO A
REMNANT LOW BY DAY 3.
AIRCRAFT DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...INCLUDING DATA FROM NOAA
BUOY 42060...SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER OF ERIKA WAS LOCATED BETWEEN
THE ISLAND OF ST. KITTS AND THE BUOY. HOWEVER...THESE DATA ALSO
SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS STILL NOT TERRIBLY WELL DEFINED. ERIKA
IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 300/07. THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THE RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD NORTH OF ERIKA...WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IN NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...OR
NORTHWARD...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION AND A SLIGHT SHIFT
IN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
WHILE IT IS LIKELY THAT ANY TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING
IN ISOLATED AREAS WELL EAST OF THE CENTER...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO IN THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS TO REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THOSE ISLANDS AT THIS TIME.
EVEN IF ERIKA LOSES ITS TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...IT COULD MAINTAIN VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION WHICH
WOULD PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINS ALONG ITS TRACK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/1500Z 16.9N 63.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 04/0000Z 17.5N 64.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 04/1200Z 18.4N 66.1W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 05/0000Z 19.2N 67.5W 30 KT
48HR VT 05/1200Z 20.0N 68.8W 30 KT
72HR VT 06/1200Z 21.5N 71.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 07/1200Z 23.0N 73.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Its alsot the deepest well on the planet...35K feet down...Thats deep, even through 4 mile of water...
Rains like we are getting today are what makes the Islands green and beautiful, let it rain. The only problem I have with it, is I live in an area that is prone to flash flooding, the valley gets lahars from the volcano when ever we get to much rain. I live high enough my property is not in danger but it tends to smell pretty bad at times. Oh well, I guess I will just have to stay home today, darn. LOL
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION
21:00 PM JST September 3 2009
=========================================
SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of The Philippines
At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (994 hPa) located at 16.9N 127.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west-southwest slowly
RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T1.5
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 18.9N 130.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Just another example. Best not to feed into the childish behaviour of others.
Yeah, flooding was our biggest issue after Omar brushed us. These rains aren't as heavy just yet but appear they may be over us longer than he was so not sure what the outcome may be.
Yes, it is pretty amazing, BP will continue to drill several more wells to measure the size of the reserve.
We need a calm period for the GOM, so they can undergo their quest.
People seem to forget that the shear called for is a forecast, every bit as much as the track and intensity of the storm is...
This area has had flash flooding in the past as well - the roads were like rivers. Not fun huh? I'm pretty broken up about having to stay home doing nothing today as well. ;)
One thing to point out with that is that a good chunk (not sure how much of it) of the estimated reserves are in "oil equivalent"... which is natural gas. I'm interested to see the breakdown between the natural gas and crude oil once they get a few more test wells dropped into there.
I think I'll go back to lurking and amuse myself with the never-ending Floridacasting. After all, I lack a PhD so I cannot possibly be right, and besides, every storm must hit Florida. (*rolls eyes*)
i would say wnw IMO..look at this imagery,
Link
LUCKY DEVILS :)
Me too Jeffs...
It is foolhardy to focus on a single model at any point during the season, ESPECIALLY with a weak/ill-defined storm such as Erika. It is much better to look at a model consensus, and take into account how well the models are in agreement. If there is a large spread between the models - good luck getting a track out of them. If the models are well-clustered, then you can project with good confidence their track is fairly good.
As for the Florida-casters... get used to them. There are a disproportionate number of people from Florida here on the main blog, and too many of them are "children" who think its fun to be in a storm. (I use children in quotes knowing full well that quite a few of these bloggers I am speaking of are actually adults, and they just act like children on here)
nice observation. drill here drill now save americans and make americans money.
well said, thats why I moved away from Florida 17 years ago from the Palm Beach area. Maybe it's the heat and humidity that causes them to be.....
Likewise, to me it looks to be moving due West.
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